According to the source, prediction market Kalshi prices a 70% probability that the U.S. government will shut down on Wednesday, signaling elevated policy risk into month‑end and early October (source: Kalshi). If a lapse in appropriations occurs, the SEC will scale to excepted operations, pausing most registrations and reviews, which can delay ETF and rulemaking timelines that crypto traders track closely (source: U.S. SEC Lapse in Appropriations Plan). A shutdown also postpones major macro releases such as the jobs report and CPI, reducing rate visibility and typically boosting event risk premia into deadlines, a dynamic options traders monitor for implied volatility in crypto (source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan; Deribit Insights). For Uptober seasonality, Bitcoin has logged multiple positive Octobers historically, but positioning should be anchored to the dollar and yields given the documented inverse relationship between BTC and DXY/real yields observed in recent market research (source: CoinGlass monthly returns dashboard; Kaiko Research).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Kalshi betting markets currently assign a 50% probability that Ethereum (ETH) trades above $5,000 at some point in 2025 (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Sep 27, 2025; source: Kalshi odds as cited by @StockMKTNewz). For traders, a 50% market-implied chance at the $5,000 threshold makes that strike a practical pivot for structuring bullish call spreads, risk-reversals, or defining stop/target levels around a key psychological barrier (inference based on the cited odds; source: @StockMKTNewz). The stated probability can also serve as a sentiment benchmark to size ETH spot or futures exposure and to adjust positioning dynamically if odds drift meaningfully above or below 50% in the coming months (inference based on the cited odds; source: @StockMKTNewz).

According to @KobeissiLetter, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he will begin pushing for a single-stock trading ban for members of Congress, shared via a video clip, source: @KobeissiLetter. Kalshi event markets currently imply a 7% probability that a congressional single-stock trading ban is enacted, indicating low near-term odds, source: Kalshi. With no policy enacted and odds low, there is no direct change signaled for BTC or ETH regulatory outlook at this time; traders can monitor Kalshi odds for any material shift in policy-risk pricing, source: Kalshi.